The growth momentum in India's manufacturing sector was maintained in February, with new orders and output increasing at similar rates to January, according to a monthly survey. The seasonally adjusted S&P Global India Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) was at 55.3 in February, little-changed from 55.4 in January. The February PMI data pointed to an improvement in overall operating conditions for the 20th straight month. In PMI parlance, a print above 50 means expansion while a score below 50 indicates contraction.
Global rating agency Fitch said on Monday that bank credit growth in excess of 13 per cent year on year in FY23 could put pressure on core equity tier ratios (CET1) of banks, especially public sector lenders. It may limit the buffers of Indian banks to absorb potential future losses. Bank credit expanded by 11.5 per cent in FY22. Full-year loan growth for FY23 will represent a modest slowdown from the 17 per cent YoY pace in H1FY23.
Private life insurers are expected to deliver decent growth in the first quarter of the 2023-24 financial year (Q1FY24) on the back of stronger group business performance and easing supply-side constraints on individual protection. Life Insurance Corporation (LIC), though, is likely to see a decline. Healthy 12 per cent year-on-year (YoY) retail annual premium equivalent (APE) growth for private players, coupled with 11 per cent year-on-year (YoY) decline in LIC, will pull retail APE growth to a mere 3 per cent YoY in June 2023.
India's services sector activity growth touched a five-month high in August on stronger rise in new work orders, while payroll numbers rose solidly as companies remained upbeat regarding the economic outlook, a monthly survey said on Wednesday. The seasonally adjusted HSBC India Services Business Activity Index rose from 60.3 in July to 60.9 in August, registering the fastest expansion since March and was largely supported by productivity gains and positive demand trends.
Anticipating US action on tariffs, India seems to have made the first move by revamping its tariff structure by reducing the slabs to eight rates, points out Mukesh Butani.
Asian Development Bank (ADB) has kept its outlook for India's economic growth unchanged at 7 per cent for the current fiscal year while forecasting a weaker-than-previously expected pace for developing Asia. ADB's 7 per cent growth projection for fiscal 2022-23 (April 2022 to March 2023), unchanged from its September forecast, compares to 8.7 per cent GDP growth in 2021-22. For 2023-24, the GDP growth has been kept unchanged at 7.2 per cent.
The volume of new fund offerings (NFOs) in 2025 will fluctuate based on market conditions. However, innovation is expected to continue unabated. With an increasing number of fund houses aiming to establish a presence in the 'factor' investing space and changes in fund-of-fund taxation providing more opportunities, several industry-first offerings are anticipated.
Automobile industry in India is going through a long-term structural slowdown as the compound annual growth rate (CAGR) across all major vehicle segments has witnessed a decline over the last three decades, as per industry body SIAM. The auto industry has been facing headwinds even before the COVID-19 pandemic derailed the entire sector last year, a research conducted by the Society of Indian Automobile Manufacturers (SIAM) has revealed. The study clearly shows that the pandemic is not the only reason for the auto sector slowdown, which is facing deeper structural issues that need attention, the industry body noted.
Traversing from being just vehicle manufacturers to mobility solutions providers amid a raging debate over which eco-friendly technology must be incentivised, the Indian automobile industry is driving in the new year under the shadow of a slowdown in sales with the post-pandemic pent-up demand in distant memory. The shift in the auto industry -- where advanced technologies like autonomous driving, vehicle intelligence, connected features and electrification are quickly gaining traction -- will be reflected in the upcoming Bharat Mobility Global Expo in which India's flagship Auto Expo has been clubbed to be held from January 17-22, 2025 in Delhi-NCR.
Modi, after delivering his sixth straight address to the nation on Independence Day from the ramparts of the Red Fort in New Delhi, went into a brainstorming session with Sitharaman and all top officials in her ministry, sources privy to the development said. T
India's economic growth will be above 6 per cent in the current fiscal as the country has managed to strengthen its macroeconomic stability and performance even in a period of large global shocks, RBI Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) Member Ashima Goyal said on Monday. Goyal further said that a global slowdown reducing India's export growth, geopolitics fueling oil and food prices, and erratic weather are some of the continuing risks that the country faces. "India has managed to strengthen its macroeconomic stability and performance even in a period of large global shocks.
The SBI report, however, said the economic growth rate will pick up pace in 2020-21 to 6.2 per cent.
IT attrition rate is expected to be around 12% to 13% this year.
Passenger vehicle retail sales in India witnessed a 7 per cent on-year decline in June as severe heatwave conditions resulted in 15 per cent less showroom walk-ins, industry body FADA said on Friday. Overall passenger vehicle registrations stood at 2,81,566 units last month, as compared to 3,02,000 units in June 2023. "Despite improved product availability and substantial discounts aimed at stimulating demand, market sentiment remains subdued due to extreme heat resulting in 15 per cent less walk-ins and delayed monsoons," the Federation of Automobile Dealers Associations (FADA) president Manish Raj Singhania said in a statement.
Most lenders that have reported their April-June business update posted slower growth in deposits sequentially as compared to the loan growth in the April-June quarter of 2024-25 (FY25). Current and savings account (CASA) deposits continue to face pressure. Private-sector lenders YES Bank, Bandhan Bank, and RBL Bank saw their deposit growth contract by 0.5 per cent, 1.5 per cent, and 2 per cent, respectively.
Chief Economic Advisor V Anantha Nageswaran on Thursday said the economy is expected to grow at 6.5 per cent in the current fiscal notwithstanding deficient rains in August. India recorded economic growth of 7.8 per cent in the April-June quarter of 2023-24 against 13.1 per cent in the year-ago period. India's economy in Q1 grew at the fastest pace in a year, on the shoulders of a boost in capital expenditure both at central and state levels, along with stronger consumption demand, especially in rural areas, and improved performance in the services sector, he said.
India's manufacturing sector growth moderated in August as output and sales rose at slowest rates since January, while competitive pressures and inflation concerns hampered business confidence, a monthly survey said on Monday. The seasonally adjusted HSBC India Manufacturing Purchasing Managers' Index (PMI) stood at 57.5 in August, below July's reading of 58.1 but above its long-run average of 54.0, signalling a substantial improvement in operating conditions.
'As we navigate uncertain waters, a conservative approach to largecap investing could provide a strategic advantage.'
Union Finance Minister Nirmala Sitharaman on Monday said people are finding current interest rates "very stressful" and urged banks to make them affordable. Speaking at an event organised by State Bank of India, the finance minister said that at present, India requires industry to ramp up and invest in new facilities, and added that lowering lending rates can help achieve the "Viksit Bharat" aspiration.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Tuesday cut its projection of India's economic growth in 2022 to 6.8 per cent, as it joins other global agencies that have trimmed forecasts. The IMF had in July projected a gross domestic product (GDP) growth of 7.4 per cent for India in the fiscal year that started in April 2022. Even that forecast was lower than 8.2 per cent projected in January this year. India had grown at 8.7 per cent in 2021-22 fiscal (April 2021 to March 2022).
GDP growth in 2010-11 stood at 8.5 per cent.
A slowdown in hiring by India's top IT companies has resulted in a sharp increase in the industry's profit per employee in Q3FY23. The top four IT companies earned a net profit of 1.7 lakh per employee during October-December 2022, up 8.6 per cent from Rs 1.57 lakh in Q2FY23 and 16.3 per cent from a record low of Rs 1.47 lakh in Q1FY23. Earnings per employee in the third quarter were, however, still down 0.9 per cent on a year-on-year (YoY) basis.
The Reserve Bank may go for a final 25 basis points increase in the current rate hike cycle next week and a reduction would come in only by the end of third quarter of FY24, economists at Axis Bank said on Wednesday. As per media reports, RBI officials met economists on Tuesday, and the latter have suggested the central bank to go for a 25 basis points hike in key rates. Since May 2022, the RBI has hiked rates by 250 basis points, hurting borrowers and some are already concerned about loan tenors extending beyond their working lives as a result of the hikes.
Fear of a recession in the US due to rising unemployment has added to the concerns of India's IT services sector, which was seeing some growth returning after Q1FY25 results. The Nifty IT closed 3.26 per cent down, as major IT services companies' stock value fell. Tata Consultancy Services (TCS), India's largest IT services firm, saw its stock price fall 4 per cent during intraday trading.
Making a case for an optimal fiscal stance, the Economic Survey on Friday said growth leads to debt sustainability and not necessarily vice-versa. "This is because debt sustainability depends on the 'Interest Rate Growth Rate Differential' (IRGD) i.e. the difference between the interest rate and the growth rate in an economy. "With the Indian context of potential high growth, the interest rate on debt paid by the Indian government has been less than India's growth rate by norm, not by exception," it said.
With the Big Four information technology services players having disappointed the Street, the focus is on mid-cap IT players who seem to have met expectations, according to analyst reports and management commentary on the demand environment.
OIL, IOC, HPCL, BPCL slipped between 0.1-1.5% each while the oil producing companies such as ONGC (0.1%), RIL (1.5%), GAIL(2.6%) also edged lower.
Sounding a note of caution, former Reserve Bank Governor Raghuram Rajan has said that India is "dangerously close" to the Hindu rate of growth in view of subdued private sector investment, high interest rates and slowing global growth. Rajan said that sequential slowdown in the quarterly growth, as revealed by the latest estimate of national income released by the National Statistical Office (NSO) last month, was worrying. Hindu rate of growth is a term describing low Indian economic growth rates from the 1950s to the 1980s, which averaged around 4 per cent.
Gold prices have surged nearly 18 per cent, so far, in the calendar year 2022 (CY22) to around $2,050 per ounce against the backdrop of the ongoing Russia-Ukraine war and there is more headroom over the next few months, believe analysts at Goldman Sachs who expect the yellow metal to become costlier by another 25 per cent to $2,500 an ounce by the year-end. Goldman Sachs, earlier, had raised its 12-month gold price forecast to $2,150 per ounce considering that an impending US growth slowdown would lead to increased concerns of a US recession and incentivise 300 tonnes of inflows into gold ETFs. At the beginning of the Russia-Ukraine tensions, Goldman Sachs had suggested the resultant rally in commodities could deteriorate the developed market (DM) growth-inflation mix, increase concerns of a American recession, and push gold ETF inflows to 600 tonnes and, in turn, lift gold prices to $2,350 an ounce in 12 months.
China's GDP grew by 4.9 per cent in the third quarter, down from 7.9 per cent in the second, confirming the slowdown of the world's second-largest economy which was under pressure from the crisis-hit property sector, curbs on energy and tardy recovery from the Covid-19 pandemic.
Deputy Governor Michael Patra warned about the spillover effects of food inflation.
The last four years, the best for corporate profits in a long time, have not been as impressive for corporate capital expenditure. The combined net profits of India's top listed companies excluding banks, financial services, and insurance (BFSI) increased at a compound annual growth rate (CAGR) of 32.4 per cent since FY20, a sharp jump from the 7.4 per cent in corporate earnings between FY14 and FY19.
The International Monetary Fund (IMF) on Tuesday lowered India's economic growth projection for the current fiscal to 5.9 per cent from 6.1 per cent earlier. Yet India will continue to be the fastest-growing economy in the world. In its annual World Economic Outlook, IMF also lowered the forecast for 2024-25 fiscal (April 2024 to March 2025) to 6.3 per cent from the 6.8 per cent it had predicted in January this year. The growth rate of 5.9 per cent in the 2023-24 fiscal compares to an estimated 6.8 per cent in the previous year.
The economy is likely to log in a tepid 6 per cent growth next fiscal, in line with the consensus estimates, rating agency Crisil said on Thursday. The agency also sees the economy averaging a growth rate of 6.8 per cent over the next five fiscals. Crisil further said it expects the corporate revenue to log in double-digit rise again next fiscal.
The Indian economy will grow by 6.9 per cent in 2011-12 against 8.4 per cent in the last financial year according to government estimates.
Gold, a safe-haven bet, is likely to continue its record-smashing journey in the New Year, rising to Rs 85,000 per 10 grams and even Rs 90,000 level in domestic markets if geopolitical tensions and global economic uncertainties continue.
The three day MPC meeting began on Monday and the decision will be announced on Wednesday by RBI Governor Shaktikanta Das.
On the exports front, Bajaj is under pressure in Bangladesh and Africa. On the domestic front, it could ride improvement in rural demand and new launches but it also has to cope with competitive intensity and a high base. The management projects 7-8 per cent volume growth in domestic 2W in financial year 2025 (FY25) with moderation in H2FY25 due to a high base Y-o-Y.
The narrative on China is changing post the recent stimulus measures, and it will be hard for global investors to ignore the Chinese markets.
